It’s good news for Biden and possibly the world as the numbers are looking promising for a Democrat victory.
Let’s crunch the numbers – Trump won in 2016 because he won 304 electoral votes while Hilary Clinton won 227 electoral votes (like MPs) out of 538 – you only need 270 electoral votes to win the race to the White House.
There are 5 key Swing States which Trump won:
- Wisconsin, with it’s 10 electoral votes
- Pennsylvania with it’s 20 electoral votes
- Michigan with it’s 16 electoral votes
- Florida with it’s 29 electoral votes
- North Carolina with it’s 15 electoral votes
Biden only needs 35 electoral votes to potentially seize power from Trump – though 43 is needed to avoid a Contingent Election (which will be explained later) and to declare outright victory. Out of the 8 key Swing States, Biden, in some cases, only needs to flip 2 of those 5 states and he can claim victory. For example:
Florida and Michigan flipping to Biden would be more than enough needed – Biden would win 272 electoral votes while Trump would fall to 259 – a comfortable victory for Biden.
Florida and Pennsylvania flipping to Biden would also result in a comfortable victory – Biden would win 276 electoral votes while Trump would slump to 255 – perfect.
North Carolina and Florida flipping to Biden would also be enough, as Biden would be on 271 and Trump would fall to 260 – enough to kick Trump out the White House.
There are 2 potential scenarios where Biden would be ahead of Trump, but wouldn’t receive 270 seats absolutely needed – it’s important to point out if no one reaches 270, the 20th Amendment of the U.S Constituent would kick in and demand a “Contingent Election” where the incoming Congress choses the President. Contingent elections have occurred only three times in American history: in 1801, 1825, and 1837.
If Wisconsin and Florida flip to Biden, Biden would have 266 and Trump would have 265 – this is the most interesting of potential scenarios, and it is not certain what reaction this would spark across the country. This scenario naturally relies on everywhere else voting the same way they did in 2016.
If a 3-way combination of North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan flip to Biden, this would bring him up to 268, 2 shy of the 270 needed for a majority, but as Trump would fall to 263, the difference of 5 rather than 1 would give Biden space to convince the incoming Congress that he should be President of the U.S, especially if he also wins the popular vote.
Ideally, Biden could flip all 5, that would give him 317, making Trump slump to 214 – a landslide.
These 5 states don’t include a typical Swing State like Ohio, which Obama won twice – though Trump won comfortably in Ohio and polls and looking favourably for Trump, however if the Ohio electorate enjoyed 8 years of Obama, they might vote for his Vice-President, Joe Biden.
Arizona is also looking like a potential Swing State, as polls are looking good there for Biden – it hasn’t voted Democrat since 1996.
This is a very tight election, and we hope and pray that when the results are announced, Biden wins a comfortable majority, for all our sake.
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